Briefings

A new quarter opens with the US dollar near its strongest in over a year and gold still on the back foot — its fourth losing month in a row. The market has all but given up on rate cuts this year and is quietly toying with the idea of a hike, which keeps the wind at the dollar's back and a lid on gold. Oil is easing as US–Iran talks resume in Doha, crypto is limping along under "extreme fear," and everyone is bracing for a heavy slug of US jobs data over the next 48 hours.

Wall Street had a strong night — the Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time and tech led a broad rally — as the Middle East kept cooling and traders leaned into the calm. The catch is that this calm is hawkish: with oil tumbling and the conflict premium draining away, attention has snapped back to a Federal Reserve that markets now think will raise rates this year, not cut. That mix — strong stocks, a powerful US dollar, and a gold price bleeding lower — is the story I'm trading this morning, on the last day of the quarter.

A new, tougher-talking Federal Reserve has put a firm bid back under the US dollar, and that single fact is shaping every market this morning. The dollar is at its strongest in over a year, the Aussie is scraping three-month lows, and crypto is deep in a brutal year-long downturn. Gold is the odd one out — it's holding near $4,090 even with the wind in its face, which tells me there's still real buying underneath. My lean today is with the dollar and cautious on risk, but I want better prices before I act.

The new Fed chair has turned distinctly tougher on inflation, and markets are now betting the next move is a rate hike rather than a cut — that's pushed the US dollar to one-year highs and knocked gold back below $4,000 for the first time since November. At the same time the Middle East war that drove this year's safe-haven rush is winding down, oil is sliding, and crypto is deep in a slump with Bitcoin at its lowest in two years. The wind is blowing one way today: strong dollar, soft everything-else. I'm leaning with it, carefully.

The guns went quiet in the Middle East, and markets are tearing up the war-insurance policy they'd been paying for. Oil has fallen all the way back to where it was before the fighting started, and that's draining the "scary headline" premium out of gold, which has just slipped under $4,000 for the first time in weeks. At the same time the US dollar is the strongest it's been in a year because traders now think the Fed will keep raising rates — and a strong dollar is rough on gold, crypto and pretty much anything that doesn't pay interest. My read: the path of least resistance is still down for the safe-havens until the inflation data tells us otherwise.

The US dollar is on the front foot again, and that's the story behind almost everything this morning. A hawkish new Fed plus an easing of Middle East tension has knocked the wind out of gold, crypto and the high-flying tech names all at once. My read: the path of least resistance is still a stronger dollar and softer "risk" assets, so I'm leaning to sell bounces rather than chase the lows.

The week's big story is peace breaking out — the US and Iran have sketched a roadmap to end their war within 60 days, and that's quietly draining the fear premium that kept gold near record highs. At the same time the new-look Federal Reserve is leaning toward raising rates rather than cutting, which is putting a firm bid under the US dollar and a lid on gold and crypto. My read: the wind is at the dollar's back today, but the Iran truce is fragile enough that one angry headline can flip the mood in minutes.

The dollar is the strongest it's been in over a year after the Fed surprised everyone last week by signalling rate hikes — not cuts — for the rest of 2026. That's quietly punishing things that don't pay interest: gold and crypto have both been bleeding, even as share markets shrug it off and the US-Iran ceasefire takes the war premium out of oil. My read into the new week: keep leaning with the dollar, fade bounces in gold and Ether, and circle Thursday's US inflation print as the one number that can change everything.

The market has flipped its script: a US–Iran ceasefire is taking the war premium out of oil and gold at the same time as a newly hawkish Fed is keeping the US dollar bid. That combination is brutal for gold, which has now given back almost all of its 2026 gains, and it's leaning on crypto too. One quirk to respect today — US markets are shut for the Juneteenth holiday, so liquidity will be thin and moves can be exaggerated.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady overnight but made it clear the next move is more likely up than down — a hawkish surprise that lit a fire under the US dollar and knocked stocks, gold and crypto lower. At the same time the Middle East is cooling off, with a US–Iran peace deal due to be signed Friday, so the safe-haven bid that carried gold to record highs earlier this year is draining away. My read: this is a dollar-strength, risk-off morning, and I'm leaning with that tide rather than against it.

The US and Iran have signed a deal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and markets are quietly exhaling. Oil is falling hard, stocks are firmer, and the war premium that pumped gold to record territory is leaking back out. Everyone now turns to the US Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates early tomorrow our time — until then, expect a slow, careful drift rather than fireworks.

Washington and Tehran have struck a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and markets spent the US session unwinding the fear that had built up over the conflict. Oil dropped hard, stocks and crypto jumped, the US dollar slipped, and gold — the classic panic asset — gave back a chunk of its war premium. The mood this morning is firmly risk-on, and I'm leaning with it while watching today's RBA decision and a Fed meeting that kicks off later this week.

The US–Iran war looks to be ending — a ceasefire is reportedly in place and a signing is pencilled in for Friday in Switzerland, though Tehran is still arguing about the date. With the shooting stopping, the "fear premium" that had been parked in gold, the Swiss franc and the yen is starting to leak out, oil is sliding, and shares drifted higher into the weekend. The wind is blowing toward calmer, risk-on markets and a softer gold — but one angry headline out of Tehran could flip that in minutes, and the Fed meets Wednesday US-time.

Markets breathed out overnight after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran — shares jumped, oil tumbled, and the war-premium that had been propping up gold started leaking away. The mood flipped to risk-on, but the US dollar is still the market's preferred bolt-hole, which keeps a lid on gold. The real question is whether the calm survives the weekend — nothing has been signed.