Overnight, while the US slept

US stocks bounced back: Wall Street clawed back Wednesday's Fed-day losses — the S&P 500 closed +1.08% at 7,500.58, the Nasdaq +1.91% at 26,517.93, and the Dow a quieter +0.14% (+72 points) at 51,564.70. The lift came mostly from relief that the Middle East is de-escalating; risk appetite improved even as the rates backdrop stayed unfriendly.

Rates & DXY: The hawkish repricing from Wednesday's FOMC is still doing the heavy lifting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh the Fed dropped its forward guidance and roughly half the committee now pencils in at least one rate hike this year — a stunning shift. The US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate) sits near 4.46–4.49% and the 2-year around 4.2%. The DXY (the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies) pushed to 100.72, its highest since May 2025, after jumping nearly 1% the prior session. A strong dollar is the spine of this whole tape.

The dominant driver — a Middle East ceasefire: Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum extending their ceasefire by 60 days, and oil sold off on the news — Brent around $78.4 (−1.4%) and WTI near $75.8 (−1.25%). This matters enormously for gold, and it pays to diagnose why. The war was a supply-side shock (an oil-driven inflation threat from a conflict around the Strait of Hormuz). As that threat fades, two things happen at once: the safe-haven bid for gold unwinds, and the Fed keeps real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) high to fight the inflation the oil spike already lit. High real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no yield. So this is the bearish-gold version of the framework — not "war over, sell gold" glibly, but "the haven premium is leaving while real yields stay punishing."

Gold: trading 4209.14 / 4209.48. Day range 4201.66–4329.85; prior-day high/low 4382.23 / 4219.01. That is a violent drop — gold has shed roughly $170 from yesterday's high and erased nearly all of 2026's gains. RSI on the 15-minute chart (a momentum gauge; under 30 is "oversold," over 70 "overbought") is down at 34.4, so it's stretched to the downside and a technical bounce wouldn't surprise me — but the trend and the macro both point lower. My read: rallies are for selling, not chasing.

Crypto: Bitcoin 62,885 / 62,902 (RSI M15 46.8, ATR — average 15-min range — about $198); day 62,767–63,052, prior-day H/L 64,750 / 62,155. It's heavy, weighed down by ETF outflows and the risk-off, hawkish-dollar mood. Ether 1,703 / 1,705 (RSI M15 51.5, ATR ~$7); day 1,698.42–1,708.42, prior-day H/L 1,760.17 / 1,667.17. ETH has slid from 1,760 and is hugging the lower half of its range. Crypto is trading like a risk asset here, not a hedge.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14596 — RSI 43.7 (neutral, soft), ATR ~4.3 pips. Day H/L 1.14575 / 1.14623, prior-day H/L 1.15283 / 1.14514. The euro has been sold hard off 1.1528; momentum is with the dollar.
• GBPUSD 1.32025 — RSI 39.3 (weak), ATR ~6.3 pips. Down from 1.3325 — sterling is one of the softer majors.
• USDJPY 161.396 — RSI 53.9, ATR ~13.5 pips. Sitting just under the day high at a punchy 161+; this is the zone where Japan's finance ministry (MOF) has historically intervened to prop up the yen, so I'd treat long-dollar-yen here with respect.
• AUDUSD 0.70157 — RSI 47.8, ATR ~4.9 pips. Drifting lower with the broad risk-off, near 0.7010 support.
• NZDUSD 0.57532 — RSI 41.6, ATR ~4.5 pips. Weak, leaking from 0.5799.
• USDCHF 0.80473 — RSI 53.5, ATR ~5.2 pips. Franc on the back foot as the dollar dominates.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,500.58	+1.08%	Risk-on (rebound)
US 10Y	~4.46%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	100.72	+~1%	USD strong (2025 highs)
Gold	4,209	−$173 from prior-day high 4,382	Bearish (haven unwind + real rates)
Bitcoin	62,885	−$1,865 from prior-day high 64,750	Weak
Brent	~$78.4	−1.4%	Ceasefire easing oil

One thing to flag up top: US stock and bond markets are closed today for Juneteenth and reopen Monday. Expect thinner liquidity and gappier price action than a normal Friday.

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