Overnight, while the US slept

Stocks firm, but the real story is a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar. US shares actually closed last Thursday on the front foot — the S&P 500 finished at 7,500.58 (+1.08%), the Nasdaq jumped to 26,517.93 (+1.91%) on a chip-led comeback, and the Dow edged up to 51,564.70 (+0.14%). Wall Street was shut Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, so today's reopen is the first proper session in three days — expect a little catch-up jostle.

Rates & DXY: Last week's Fed meeting is still the gravitational centre of every market. The Fed held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% but its "dot plot" (the chart of where officials think rates are heading) flipped from signalling a cut this year to signalling a hike — nine of eighteen members now pencil in at least one increase in 2026, and the inflation forecast was lifted hard to 3.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.44%, and the DXY (the dollar index — the greenback measured against a basket of big currencies) has pushed to about 100.8–101.1, its highest since May 2025. A strong dollar with rising real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) is the headwind running through everything below.

Gold — and why it's falling into conflict, not despite it. Gold is trading near 4155/4156, well under Friday's prior range and down sharply from the 4329 high printed earlier last week. It's worth being precise about why, because the lazy take is "Middle East war = buy gold." This is the opposite case: the US-Iran ceasefire (extended 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and oil down roughly 20% from its 2026 peak) is a supply-side unwind — the war premium is draining out, oil is falling, and at the same time the Fed has turned hawkish, lifting real rates and the dollar. Lower war risk plus higher real rates plus a stronger dollar is a textbook bearish cocktail for a metal that pays no yield. I'm bearish gold while that mix holds.

Crypto: Bitcoin is around 63,250 (RSI M15 ~60, ATR ~$100); day range 62,969–63,301, prior-day band 62,233–63,361 — it's clawed back some ground but spent Friday near $62k after heavy long liquidations. Ether is near 1705 (RSI ~55, ATR ~$3.6); day range 1695–1707, prior-day band 1666–1717. Both have been sliding since the Fed since, like gold, they pay no interest and a stronger dollar plus higher-for-longer rates is a direct drag. The bounce off Friday's lows looks corrective to me, not a turn.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.1468 — RSI 44.6 (neutral, soft), ATR ~4 pips. Day H/L 1.1481/1.1418, prior-day H/L 1.1528/1.1451. Grinding lower under the dollar's weight.
• GBPUSD 1.3235 — RSI 55.3, ATR ~7 pips. Holding up better than the euro but capped at 1.3241 on the day.
• USDJPY 161.30 — RSI 52.9, ATR ~4 pips. The yen is back near the weak end of its range; with the Fed hawkish and the rate gap wide, dollar-yen is pressing higher — but mind the Ministry of Finance (Japan's Treasury, which has intervened to prop up the yen before) up here.
• AUDUSD 0.7013 — RSI 52.6, ATR ~3 pips. Rangebound ahead of Wednesday's local inflation read.
• NZDUSD 0.5740 — RSI 48.9, ATR ~2 pips. Soft, tracking the broad USD bid.
• USDCHF 0.8072 — RSI 51.8, ATR ~3 pips. Franc firm but the dollar is firmer.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,500.58 (Thu)	+1.08%	Risk-on
US 10Y	4.44%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~100.8	+, multi-yr high	USD strong
Gold	~4156	−$45 vs prior-day low	Bearish (supply-side + hawkish)
Bitcoin	~63,250	−$110 vs prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$77–80	−, ~20% off 2026 peak	Ceasefire / de-escalation

Context: US cash equities reopen today after Friday's Juneteenth holiday, so the weekend has run on thinner FX/gold/crypto liquidity — treat the opening levels with a little extra care.

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