Overnight, while the US slept

Risk appetite improved on peace, not policy. The headline that mattered overnight was geopolitical, not economic: the US and Iran formally signed a framework deal to end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin 60 days of nuclear talks. Ships are reportedly moving through the strait again. US equities firmed on the de-escalation — the S&P 500 sits around 7,340, with the risk tone leaning positive into a Federal Reserve decision (the US central bank's interest-rate meeting) tomorrow.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate that drives the cost of money everywhere) is hovering near 4.50%, steady-to-slightly-softer as collapsing oil eases the inflation worry. The US dollar index, or DXY (a gauge of the dollar against a basket of major currencies), is soft in the low-99s. A softer dollar would normally be a tailwind for gold — but tonight the safe-haven unwind is winning that tug-of-war.

The oil collapse is the real story under the surface. Brent crude has cratered to roughly $78.80 a barrel, down more than 5% on the day and on track for its longest losing streak of the year, as the reopening of Hormuz removes the supply threat that had markets bracing for a price spike. This is the textbook reversal of a supply-side shock (when a disruption to physical supply, like a blocked shipping lane, drives prices and inflation up). With that threat lifting, the inflation scare fades, central banks have less reason to stay aggressive, and — crucially — gold loses one of the pillars holding it up.

Gold: trading 4331.24 / 4331.52. Day range 4305.97–4354.93; prior-day high/low 4369.48 / 4264.67. Here's my read using the framework I always apply: this was a demand-side safe-haven rally (money fleeing into gold for safety during the war), and that flight is now reversing as peace holds. The falling-oil, disinflation angle should in theory support gold via lower real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation), but the war-premium bleed is moving faster than the rate relief can offset. Net: I'm leaning gold lower while the ceasefire sticks and the Fed gives no dovish surprise. Note gold is well off yesterday's 4369 high — that prior-day high is now the line in the sand.

Crypto: Bitcoin 65,680 (RSI M15 44, ATR $161); day 65,645–65,876, prior-day H/L 66,951 / 65,277. It popped on the Iran deal and a fresh round of corporate buying (MicroStrategy and Marathon both adding) but has since faded back under 66k — a soft, range-bound look. Ether 1,792 (RSI M15 51, ATR $7.46); day 1,788.97–1,797.82, prior-day H/L 1,836.57 / 1,755.67. ETH bounced off the 1,756 low but stalled mid-range; momentum is neutral, not impulsive.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.16122 — RSI 57 (neutral, mild upward lean), ATR ~3.4 pips. Day H/L 1.16127 / 1.16048, prior-day H/L 1.16198 / 1.15749. Sitting near the top of its day range with a soft dollar behind it.
• GBPUSD 1.34296 — RSI 55, ATR ~4 pips. Day H/L 1.34362 / 1.34227. Firm but waiting on UK inflation data later today.
• USDJPY 160.389 — RSI 42 (neutral), ATR ~3 pips. Prior-day H/L 160.483 / 160.051. The 160-plus zone keeps Japanese intervention (when Japan's Ministry of Finance steps in to support the yen) on the radar — I'd be wary of chasing this higher pre-Fed.
• AUDUSD 0.70692 — RSI 47, ATR ~2.5 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.70799 / 0.70422. Quietly heavy near the lows of the range.
• NZDUSD 0.58276 — RSI 34 (approaching oversold — meaning it's fallen far enough that a bounce gets more likely), ATR ~2.9 pips. The weakest of the majors overnight.
• USDCHF 0.79315 — RSI 44, ATR ~2.3 pips. Franc firm; the safe-haven bid is rotating out of gold but the franc is holding its ground.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~7,340	+~0.4%	Risk-on
US 10Y	~4.50%	Steady/Falling	Mildly dovish
DXY	~99.2	Soft	USD weaker
Gold	4331	−$38 from prior-day high	Bearish (safe-haven unwind)
Bitcoin	65,680	−$1,271 from prior-day high	Soft
Brent	~$78.80	−5%+	Hormuz reopening

Context: a pre-Fed session — expect thinner conviction and tighter ranges until tomorrow's decision lands.

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