Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-on across the board: US equities surged on the peace headlines — the S&P 500 finished up roughly +1.5%, the Dow about +1.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq the standout at roughly +2.4%. With a war premium coming out of oil, investors rotated straight back into risk.

Rates & DXY: US Treasury yields eased as the deal cooled inflation worries — the 10-year note slipped to about 4.46%, the 2-year to roughly 4.05%. The US dollar index (DXY — a gauge of the dollar against a basket of major currencies) fell about 0.2% to 99.56, a 10-day low, as safe-haven demand for dollars unwound.

The driver — a US–Iran peace deal: President Trump declared a framework deal "complete" over the weekend: the US blockade lifts and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Brent crude fell more than 4% to around $83.82. This is the key to reading gold today — see below.

Gold: trading 4309.13/4309.43. Day range 4264.67–4369.48; prior-day high/low 4246.65 / 4170.30. Here's the framework I always apply: when geopolitics moves gold, you have to diagnose which kind of shock. A supply-side shock (an oil spike from war that forces central banks to stay hawkish, pushing up real rates — interest rates after subtracting inflation) is actually bearish for gold. A demand-side safe-haven flight (panic buying for protection) is bullish. What we got this weekend is the reverse of a safe-haven flight: the threat is being removed, oil is falling, and the panic bid is draining out. So despite "geopolitics," this is a demand-side unwind — and that's why gold sold off about $60 from its overnight high. My read is bearish while the deal holds. RSI (a momentum gauge, 0–100) sits at 26.8 on the 15-minute chart — technically oversold, which tells me not to chase the lows but to sell into a bounce.

Crypto: Bitcoin 66393 (15-min RSI 41.2, ATR $195 — ATR being the average price range per bar, a volatility measure); day range 66251–66531, prior-day H/L 67251 / 63825. BTC hit a two-week high near 67.3k overnight on the risk-on wave, up sharply from early-June lows around 59k, and is now consolidating just below the highs. Ether 1814.72 (15-min RSI 49.2, ATR $8.2); day range 1810.47–1819.67, prior-day H/L 1847.32 / 1667.92. ETH ran hard with the rally (XRP and SOL jumped 7–9% too) and is taking a healthy breather after tagging 1847.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.15946 — RSI 48.0 (neutral), ATR ~5 pips. Day H/L 1.15947 / 1.15866, prior-day H/L 1.16220 / 1.15734. Soft even with the dollar broadly weaker — the euro isn't the place the risk-on flow is going.
• GBPUSD 1.34184 — RSI 48.5, ATR ~8 pips. Drifting, no clean level near price.
• USDJPY 160.343 — RSI 62.4, ATR ~4 pips. Day H/L 160.344 / 160.295, prior-day H/L 160.397 / 159.736. Grinding higher on the carry/risk-on bid even as the dollar softens elsewhere; 160.40 is the line in the sand and I'd keep half an eye on Japanese intervention talk up here.
• AUDUSD 0.70732 — RSI 47.7, ATR ~3 pips. Coiled and quiet ahead of the RBA this afternoon.
• NZDUSD 0.58309 — RSI 54.5, ATR ~4 pips. Pulled back from 0.58637.
• USDCHF 0.79464 — RSI 61.2, ATR ~4 pips. Franc softening as the safe-haven trade unwinds.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~+1.5%	Higher	Risk-on
US 10Y	4.46%	Falling	Mildly dovish
DXY	99.56	−0.2% (10-day low)	USD soft
Gold	4309	~−$60 from o/n high	Bearish (demand-side unwind)
Bitcoin	66,393	Two-week high, firm	Strong
Brent	~$83.82	−4%	Hormuz reopens

Normal liquidity session; the big US event risk lands later this week, not today.

---