Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-off across the board: US stocks fell hard on Thursday as surging oil and rising bond yields collided with wobbly big-tech earnings. The S&P 500 dropped 1.21% to 7,408, the Nasdaq shed 2.15% to 25,138, and the Dow lost 0.97% (−507 pts) to 51,712. Alphabet fell about 7% and Tesla about 14% after results reignited worries about how much these giants are spending on AI.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate markets price everything off) rose ~3bp to about 4.685%, and the 2-year pushed to a fresh 15-month high as traders leaned toward the Fed staying higher-for-longer — even flirting with hikes. The DXY (dollar index — the greenback measured against a basket of major peers) held above 101, up ~0.3% on the day, propped up by those firmer yields and the oil bid.

The dominant driver — a supply-side oil shock: Fresh US strikes on Iran (a 12th straight night) plus a Houthi campaign against Saudi shipping in the Red Sea drove Brent crude to a six-week high near $96–99, with WTI tagging $90. This is the textbook supply-side shock (a jump in a key input cost like oil, as opposed to a demand-driven one) — and it matters for how you trade gold. Higher oil → stickier inflation → central banks stay hawkish → real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) rise → the dollar and bond yields get a bid → and that combination weighs on gold despite the conflict. This is exactly why gold is lower, not higher, on a week of escalating war. I'd resist the reflex that says "more conflict = buy gold" here; the shock type is working against it.

Gold: trading 4049.65/4049.70. Day range 4046.49–4050.51; prior-day H/L 4141.07 / 4040.15. Spot fell roughly 2% in the prior session — a brutal ~$100 top-to-bottom swing — and is now consolidating just above prior-day support. With real rates and the dollar rising, my read is that rallies are for selling until that backdrop shifts.

Crypto: Bitcoin 65,144 (RSI M15 58, ATR $144); day 64,923–65,176, prior-day H/L 66,282 / 64,559. It slipped ~1.5% as risk appetite drained and hopes for the US Clarity Act (crypto market-structure legislation) faded into August. Ether 1,880.77 (RSI M15 47, ATR $5.8); day 1,870.82–1,882.32, prior-day H/L 1,939.77 / 1,865.82. Ether was the weaker of the two, down ~2.5% and pinned near the lower end of its recent range.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.13795 — RSI 53 (neutral), ATR ~3 pips. Day H/L 1.13723/1.13799, prior-day H/L 1.14357/1.13640. Grinding lower with the dollar; German Ifo later today is the euro's catalyst.
• GBPUSD 1.33159 — RSI 45, ATR ~4 pips. Near one-week lows against a firm dollar; UK Retail Sales this afternoon.
• USDJPY 163.85 — RSI 57 (firm, not yet overbought), ATR ~4 pips. At a fresh 40-year high — the cleanest expression of the strong-dollar/soft-yen theme, but stretched enough that Japanese intervention (MOF intervention — the Ministry of Finance stepping in to prop up the yen) is a live risk up here.
• AUDUSD 0.69688 — RSI 46, ATR ~3 pips. Pinned near a one-month low; the risk-sensitive Aussie stays heavy while the conflict widens.
• NZDUSD 0.57716 — RSI 47, ATR ~3 pips. Following the Aussie lower.
• USDCHF 0.81667 — RSI 50, ATR ~4 pips. Flat; the franc's safe-haven bid is being offset by broad dollar strength.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,408	−1.21%	Risk-off
US 10Y	4.685%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~101.2	+0.3	USD firmer
Gold	4,049.68	−$90 from prior-day high	Bearish (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	65,144	−$1.1k from prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$96–99	+~2–5%	Iran/Houthi supply premium

Normal liquidity session; the wildcard is a fresh Middle East headline landing during thin Asian hours.

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