Overnight, while the US slept

A risk-on reset as the oil premium drains: Friday capped a choppy, lower week on Wall Street — the S&P 500 finished essentially flat (+0.05% at 7,411.98), the Dow rose 0.46% to 51,947, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.64% to 24,976, leaving all three lower for the week after Thursday's near-$800bn wipeout in the mega-cap "Magnificent Seven" tech names. Since then the tone has brightened: with the weekend headlines leaning toward diplomacy, this is shaping up as a classic relief move.

Rates & DXY: US Treasury yields are edging back from last week's highs (the 10-year had spiked near 4.69% on the inflation scare), and the DXY (dollar index — the greenback against a basket of peers) is slipping back toward the ~100.8 area as the rate-hike bets that powered it unwind. Softer yields plus a softer dollar are the fuel behind this morning's gold and risk rally.

The dominant driver — the oil shock goes into reverse: Brent crude, which had punched toward $96–99 last week, tumbled roughly 8% to near $91 (WTI heavily offered toward $84) on reports that Pakistan, backed by China, is trying to restart US–Iran negotiations. This is the supply-side shock (a jump in a key input cost like oil) unwinding: cheaper oil → the inflation scare fades → real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) ease → the dollar loses its yield-and-haven bid → and that is bullish for gold. It's the exact mirror of last week, and it's why gold is up rather than down even as the same conflict simmers. I'd stress the diagnosis matters more than the headline: it's the oil/real-rate channel doing the work here, not "war on, war off."

Gold: trading 4104.33/4104.43. Day range 4083.68–4116.22; prior-day H/L 4082.18 / 4021.97. Gold has gapped up and out of Friday's range, reclaiming the $4,100 handle as real rates ease. RSI (a momentum gauge; above ~70 is "overbought") sits at 61 — firm but not stretched. My read is that dips get bought while oil stays offered and the Fed looms.

Crypto: Bitcoin 65,148 (RSI M15 59, ATR $159); day 64,516–65,508, prior-day H/L 64,872 / 64,071. Steady-to-firm, riding the risk-on tone. Ether 1,945.95 (RSI M15 65, ATR $8.3); day 1,911.42–1,962.72, prior-day H/L 1,925.37 / 1,862.67. Ether is the star this morning, up strongly and clear of its prior-day high — the high-beta way markets are expressing the better mood.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14116 — RSI 68 (approaching overbought), ATR ~5 pips. Day H/L 1.13877/1.14144, prior-day 1.14012/1.13649. Broke above Friday's high on the softer dollar; stretched short-term.
• GBPUSD 1.33610 — RSI 67, ATR ~5 pips. Same story as the euro — firm, but getting warm.
• USDJPY 163.528 — RSI 36 (oversold), ATR ~6 pips. Rolled under its prior-day low as US yields ease; the strong-dollar carry trade is unwinding here first.
• AUDUSD 0.70027 — RSI 61, ATR ~5 pips. Back above the 0.70 handle as risk appetite returns — the clearest "risk-on" tell in FX this morning.
• NZDUSD 0.58001 — RSI 52 (neutral), ATR ~5 pips. Firming with the Aussie but, unlike EUR/GBP, not yet overbought — room to run.
• USDCHF 0.81434 — RSI 33 (oversold), ATR ~5 pips. The franc is bid and the dollar heavy; a clean expression of broad USD softness.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,412 (Fri close)	+0.05% Fri, lower on week	Cautious, stabilising
US 10Y	~4.6% area	Easing	Less hawkish
DXY	~100.8	Softer	USD on the back foot
Gold	4,105	+$23 above prior-day high	Bullish (oil/real-rate reversal)
Bitcoin	65,148	+$276 above prior-day high	Firm
Brent	~$91	−~8% from last week's high	De-escalation hopes

Quiet Monday session by the calendar; the real action is the oil tape and positioning into Wednesday's Fed.

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