Overnight, while the US slept

Oil ran the show, stocks leaked lower: Wall Street closed a touch softer as a fresh leg up in crude sapped risk appetite. The S&P 500 slipped 0.14% to 7,498.96, the Nasdaq gave back 0.57% to 25,690.90, and the Dow was essentially flat at 52,218.58 (−6 points). Nothing dramatic — more a market treading water ahead of a heavy earnings run and next week's Fed.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year yield sat firm around 4.5%, nudged up by the inflation worry that comes with pricier oil. The dollar index (DXY — a gauge of the greenback against a basket of major currencies) held near 101 after a fourth straight advance, propped up by those higher yields, the oil bid and safe-haven demand. Markets still price the Fed on hold at next week's meeting (roughly 85% odds), with the real debate about whether a cut lands later this year.

The overnight driver — a supply-side oil shock: US–Iran exchanges escalated for a tenth-plus consecutive night, with strikes hitting Gulf infrastructure and fresh worry that the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint about a fifth of the world's oil passes through — could be disrupted. Brent pushed to a six-week high near $88 before easing back toward $87; WTI traded in the mid-$80s. This is the classic supply-side shock (a hit to the supply of a key commodity, here oil) rather than a demand-side one — and that distinction matters for gold. A supply-side oil spike normally lifts inflation fears, keeps central banks cautious, pushes up real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and hands the dollar a yield-and-haven bid — a mix that usually caps gold. The reason gold is rallying anyway: the war is also stoking pure safe-haven flight, and cooler US producer-price data last week has kept Fed-rate-cut bets alive, softening the dollar's medium-term path. For now the haven bid and the dovish-Fed hope are winning the tug-of-war. My read: gold's uptrend is intact and I'm a buyer of dips, but the single thing that could flip it is another oil-driven spike in the dollar and real yields.

Gold: trading 4,129.97/4,130.17. Day range 4,076.89–4,166.04; prior-day H/L 4,087.31 / 3,999.76. It's a striking picture — gold has cleared the entire prior day's range and is holding roughly $130 above yesterday's floor, having tagged 4,166 before easing. The short-term momentum gauge (RSI, which runs 0–100; under ~30 is "oversold", over ~70 "overbought") sits near 40 on the 15-minute chart — a pullback within a strong uptrend, not a reversal signal. That's exactly the sort of dip I want to buy into.

Crypto: Bitcoin 65,877/65,897 (RSI M15 ~49, ATR — average 15-min swing — about $125); day 65,840–65,944, prior-day H/L 66,692 / 65,482. It opened firmer yesterday then lost steam and is now sitting well below the prior day's high — the risk-on pop faded. Ether 1,926.52/1,929.03 (RSI M15 ~47, ATR ~$5); day 1,923.62–1,928.12, prior-day H/L 1,954.67 / 1,907.67. Same story, weaker — Ether couldn't hold its bounce and is drifting back toward the prior day's lows. With oil and geopolitics pressuring risk, I'm treating crypto as a sell-the-bounce for now.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14087 — RSI ~45 (neutral), ATR ~2 pips. Day H/L 1.1406/1.14098, prior-day 1.14216/1.13954. Remarkably resilient — holding above 1.14 despite a firm dollar. All eyes on the ECB later today.
• GBPUSD 1.33757 — RSI ~52 (neutral), ATR ~4 pips. Day 1.33695/1.33794, prior-day 1.33545/1.33953. Middling and directionless; I don't see a clean level here.
• USDJPY 163.12 — RSI ~48 (neutral), ATR ~2.5 pips. Day 163.083/163.141, prior-day 162.684/163.229. Pinned just under its multi-decade highs. This is the zone where Japan's Ministry of Finance has intervened before (MOF intervention — the government stepping in to buy yen), so chasing it higher is playing with fire.
• AUDUSD 0.69931 — RSI ~44 (neutral), ATR ~2.5 pips. Day 0.69888/0.69976, prior-day 0.69805/0.70126. Soft under the oil-driven risk-off, but no edge at current levels.
• NZDUSD 0.58182 — RSI ~52 (neutral), ATR ~3 pips. Day 0.58064/0.58197, prior-day 0.58107/0.58337. Bounced off its lows; range-bound.
• USDCHF 0.81439 — RSI ~55, ATR ~2 pips. Day 0.81412/0.81454, prior-day 0.81137/0.81482. The franc is the other classic haven, and it's been quietly firm. I like fading dollar strength here against it.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,498.96	−0.14%	Risk-off (mild)
US 10Y	~4.5%	Firm/Rising	Mildly hawkish
DXY	~101	+ (4th up day)	USD bid
Gold	4,130	+~$130 vs prior-day low	Bullish (haven + Fed-cut bets)
Bitcoin	65,890	−~$800 vs prior-day high	Soft
Brent	~$87	+~3%	Mideast supply risk

Context: a live geopolitical tape with oil as the swing factor — expect headline-driven whipsaws, and thinner, jumpier moves around the ECB and the US open.

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