Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-off into the weekend: Wall Street closed lower Friday and booked a losing week. The S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 25,520.24 as chipmakers got hit hard, and the Dow gave back 406 points (−0.77%) to 52,146.42. On the week the S&P shed 1.6%, the Nasdaq 2.9% and the Dow 0.9% — a broad de-risking as the conflict escalated.

Rates & DXY: US yields eased slightly on the safe-haven bid — the 10-year Treasury (the benchmark government bond markets price everything off) at 4.523%, the 2-year at 4.172%, the 30-year at 5.061%. But the bigger story is direction of travel: Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan openly called for another rate hike and Vice Chair Jefferson said he'd back tighter policy if inflation stalls, so markets are now pricing roughly a coin-flip chance of a September increase. The dollar (DXY — the index that measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies) rose for a second straight session and starts the week firm.

The dominant driver — an oil supply shock, not just a war headline: This is the distinction that matters for everything below. A sixth consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran, a reinstated naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz (the choke-point ~20% of the world's oil passes through), and Iranian retaliation against US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain have driven Brent above $85, up more than 10% on the week. When a conflict spikes oil, it's a supply-side shock (higher input costs → stickier inflation) — which pushes central banks hawkish, lifts real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation), and bids the dollar. That combination is a headwind for gold, which is exactly why gold fell even as the shooting intensified. The reflex "war = buy gold" is wrong here; the oil-inflation channel is in charge.

Gold: trading 4016.81 / 4017.76. Day range 3959.56–4023.86; prior-day high/low 4067.36 / 3969.33. Gold held below $4,000 on Friday and lost more than 3% on the week — a striking underperformance for a safe-haven during an escalating war, and the clearest evidence the supply-side/hawkish-dollar channel is dominating. It's caught a modest weekend safe-haven tick back to ~4017, but my read is that rallies remain sell candidates while real rates and the dollar are pushing higher.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,433 (RSI M15 46, ATR $95); day 64,383–64,525, prior-day H/L 64,924 / 64,183. Ether 1,862.55 (RSI M15 45, ATR $4.21); day 1,859.47–1,865.17, prior-day H/L 1,876.37 / 1,844.12. Both spiked midweek on a soft June inflation print — Bitcoin briefly over $65k, Ether over $1,900 — but the gains evaporated as the Iran strikes dulled appetite for risk assets. They start the week heavy and range-bound, trading like risk proxies rather than havens.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14303 — RSI 38 (soft), ATR ~3 pips. Day H/L 1.14252 / 1.14301, prior-day 1.14523 / 1.14244. Euro on the back foot with the dollar bid; ECB Thursday looms.
• GBPUSD 1.34474 — RSI 42, ATR ~4 pips. Prior-day 1.34808 / 1.34262. Drifting; UK CPI Wednesday is the local catalyst.
• USDJPY 162.381 — RSI 42, ATR ~4 pips. Prior-day 162.521 / 162.129. Rolling over from Friday's high; in a genuine risk-off the yen's own safe-haven pull can drag this pair lower even with US yields firm.
• AUDUSD 0.69671 — RSI 29 (oversold — momentum stretched to the downside), ATR ~3 pips. Prior-day 0.70013 / 0.69661. The Aussie is sitting on its lows; risk-off and a firm dollar are the weight.
• NZDUSD 0.58322 — RSI 31 (oversold), ATR ~3 pips. Prior-day 0.58486 / 0.58250. NZ Q2 inflation this morning is the near-term swing factor.
• USDCHF 0.80895 — RSI 70 (overbought — stretched to the upside), ATR ~4 pips. Prior-day 0.80930 / 0.80603. The franc is a curious one: usually a haven, but here the dollar is winning the haven contest.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,457.69	−1.01% (Fri)	Risk-off
US 10Y	4.523%	Slightly lower	Hawkish hold, hike risk
DXY	Firmer	2nd session up	USD bid
Gold	4,017	−$50 vs prior-day high	Bearish (supply-side/hawkish)
Bitcoin	64,433	−$490 vs prior-day high	Weak / risk-proxy
Brent	~$85	+10% on week	Hormuz supply shock

Context: fresh week, Monday open — FX and gold can gap on weekend news, so expect thinner early liquidity and wider spreads before Europe arrives.

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