Overnight, while the US slept

US stocks fell as the Iran conflict and $90 oil overshadowed the start of earnings season: the S&P 500 lost 1.0% to 7,457.69, the Dow dropped 0.8% (−406 points) to 52,146.42, and the Nasdaq slid 1.4% to 25,520.24 as chip names gave back early gains ahead of this week's Big Tech results. Risk appetite is plainly defensive.

Rates & DXY: the US 10-year Treasury yield (the interest rate the government pays to borrow for ten years — a benchmark for the whole market) sits around 4.55%, firm, as traders price sticky inflation from the oil spike rather than rate cuts. The US dollar index (DXY — a gauge of the dollar against a basket of major currencies) is holding near 101, on the front foot. Higher yields plus a bid dollar is a headwind for anything priced in dollars.

The dominant driver — a supply-side oil shock, not a safe-haven panic: the US carried out operations against Iran for a ninth straight day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck back at US assets in Jordan, Kuwait and Syria, and vessels attempting the Strait of Hormuz were targeted, with a Kuwaiti oil facility hit over the weekend. Brent crude topped $90.75 before easing, up roughly 20% on the month. This matters for gold: when conflict works through higher oil → stickier inflation → central banks staying hawkish (leaning toward higher rates) → higher real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) → a stronger dollar and bond yields, gold gets capped even with a war on. This is a supply-side shock (a hit to the supply of a commodity), not a demand-side flight into safety — so I'm not reflexively bullish gold here. That's the whole ballgame this morning.

Gold: trading 4007.56 / 4007.93. Day range 3982.81–4040.66; prior-day high/low 4023.86 / 3959.56. Gold was rejected up at 4040 and is back under the $4,000 line as the oil-inflation-yields chain does its work. My bias is to sell bounces while $4,040 caps and Brent holds $90.

Crypto: Bitcoin 65,300 (RSI M15 56 — RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a 0–100 momentum gauge where above 70 is "overbought" and below 30 "oversold"; ATR, the Average True Range or typical move per bar, ~$182); day 65,115–65,307, prior-day H/L 65,750 / 63,691. BTC clawed back into the evening but is rangebound and heavy, with wallets that bought up at $75k–$126k now underwater. Ether 1,905 (RSI M15 61, ATR ~$8.5); day 1,884–1,904, prior-day H/L 1,916 / 1,839. Ether is the firmer of the two — it reclaimed $1,900 while Bitcoin lagged — but it's stalling right under prior-day resistance.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.1414 — RSI 46 (neutral), ATR ~3 pips. Day H/L 1.1412/1.1417, prior-day H/L 1.1450/1.1402. Coiled in a tiny range; the dollar bid keeps a lid on it.
• GBPUSD 1.3424 — RSI 38 (soft), ATR ~4 pips. Cable has been sold hard from 1.3481 and sits near its lows — weak, but already stretched to the downside.
• USDJPY 162.51 — RSI 53 (neutral), ATR ~4 pips. Coiled just under 162.60; higher US yields and pricey oil (bad for energy-importing Japan) support it, but watch for MOF intervention (Japan's Ministry of Finance stepping in to prop up the yen) if it lurches higher.
• AUDUSD 0.7000 — RSI 48, ATR ~4 pips. Pinned on the 0.70 round number, a risk-sensitive currency in a risk-off tape.
• NZDUSD 0.5842 — RSI 48, ATR ~4 pips. Rejected 0.5864; commodity- and China-sensitive kiwi looks vulnerable if risk stays heavy.
• USDCHF 0.8100 — RSI 50, ATR ~4 pips. Balanced; the franc is a safe-haven that can firm if this turns into a genuine scare.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,457.69	−1.0%	Risk-off
US 10Y	~4.55%	Firm/rising	Hawkish-leaning
DXY	~101	Firm	USD bid
Gold	~4,008	−$16 vs prior-day high	Bearish (supply-side cap)
Bitcoin	~65,300	−$450 vs prior-day high	Weak/rangebound
Brent	~$90	+1.3% (topped $90.75)	Iran supply shock

Context: a headline-driven session rather than a data-driven one — US Fed officials are in their pre-meeting quiet period, so the oil tape and the first Big Tech earnings do the moving.

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