Overnight, while the US slept

US stocks slipped as chips dragged and yields ground higher: the S&P 500 eased about 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 shed more than 1% on a semiconductor slide (AI-spending jitters even after strong TSMC earnings), and the Dow finished roughly flat, off around 106 points. Rising oil and a firmer rate outlook did the damage early; risk appetite was cautious rather than panicked.

Rates & DXY: the US 10-year Treasury yield (the market's benchmark borrowing cost) nudged up to about 4.56%, with the long end firm. The backdrop stays hawkish — sticky oil plus a Fed the market reads as in no hurry to cut has the dollar (DXY — an index of the dollar against a basket of major currencies) supported near recent highs. You can see it across the board below: the euro, pound and gold all leaked lower while the yen weakened.

Middle East supply shock is the dominant driver: US forces hit Iranian missile and launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz transits are down more than 50% week-on-week, and there's talk Washington could widen operations toward Iran's Kharg Island export terminal. Brent sits near $85, close to a one-month high. This is the classic supply-side shock (a hit to the supply of a key input — here oil — rather than to demand): oil up → inflation expectations up → central banks stay hawkish → real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) up → dollar and yields bid → gold bearish even with a live conflict. This is exactly why I'm not reflexively buying gold on the war headlines.

Gold: trading 3976.49 / 3976.82. Day range 3969.33–4067.36; prior-day high/low 4081.36 / 4017.43. That's a brutal slide — gold has given back the better part of $100 and is pressing the day's lows, with RSI (a momentum gauge, 0–100) at 38, soft but not yet washed out. My read: the path of least resistance is still lower while oil and yields do the talking, so I want to sell strength, not chase weakness.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,113 (RSI M15 45, ATR — average bar range — about $121); day 63,969–64,162, prior-day H/L 64,945 / 63,778. BTC has drifted back off its mid-week pop above $65k. Ether 1,876 (RSI M15 52, ATR ~$4.5); day 1,868.77–1,877.02, prior-day H/L 1,926.77 / 1,859.52. ETH pulled back hard from ~1,927 but has been the stronger of the two this week (up ~7% over five sessions), and today's US House hearing on the Clarity Act is a genuine catalyst. I like ETH better than BTC here.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14423 — RSI 50 (neutral), ATR ~2.6 pips. Day H/L 1.14424 / 1.14391, prior-day H/L 1.14764 / 1.14312. Leaking toward the day's lows; EU CPI later today is the swing factor.
• GBPUSD 1.34774 — RSI 48, ATR ~3.6 pips. Slid from 1.3544; the pound is wearing the strong dollar.
• USDJPY 162.385 — RSI 49, ATR ~2.8 pips. Prior-day H/L 162.548 / 161.985. Yields-up keeps it bid, but 162+ is intervention territory — MOF (Japan's Ministry of Finance, which can step in to support the yen) is a live risk, so I'm not chasing it.
• AUDUSD 0.69989 — RSI 55, ATR ~3 pips. Pinned to the 0.70 round number; risk-off and a firm dollar cap it.
• NZDUSD 0.58406 — RSI 47, ATR ~2.8 pips. Heavy with the rest of the commodity bloc.
• USDCHF 0.80834 — RSI 43, ATR ~2.9 pips. Franc firm; the one currency giving the dollar a fight.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~6,300	−0.3%	Risk-off (mild)
US 10Y	4.56%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~99.6	Firmer	USD bid
Gold	3,976	−$41 from prior-day low	Bearish (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	64,113	−$832 from prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$85	+, near 1-mo high	Hormuz supply risk

Normal session — no US holiday. Expect thin-then-active liquidity around the US data batch tonight, and headline risk from the Middle East at any hour.

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