Overnight, while the US slept

Cooler inflation trumps the oil scare — Wall Street closes at records. US stocks pushed higher again after a softer-than-expected June inflation report, which showed the biggest one-month drop in consumer prices since 2020. The S&P 500 finished +0.38% at 7,572.40, the Nasdaq +0.62% at 26,269.23 and the Dow +0.29% at 52,658.64, with Apple tagging a record high and the other megacaps leading. Risk appetite is firm, but nervous — the oil story sits underneath it all.

Rates & DXY: The 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark US government borrowing rate that anchors global pricing) eased to about 4.59% as the soft inflation print took some heat off the Federal Reserve. The dollar index (DXY — the greenback measured against a basket of major currencies) slipped to roughly 100.9 from early-July highs near 101.4. Worth stressing: this is still a tightening debate, not an easing one — markets put the Fed on hold in July but price a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, because the oil spike threatens to re-stoke inflation.

The wildcard — oil and the Strait of Hormuz. The US carried out another round of strikes on Iran and reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude sits around $85 after climbing for a third straight session (up roughly 11% over the prior two). This is the piece I'm watching most closely for gold.

Gold: trading 4060.42/4060.62, sitting mid-range after a wild prior session. Day range 4017.43–4081.36; prior-day high/low 4103.04 / 3982.86 — a $120 swing in a single day tells you how two-sided this is. Here's the framework I use: an oil price spike driven by a supply-side shock (a Mideast blockade choking crude) tends to make central banks more hawkish, pushes up real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and bids the dollar as a safe haven — which is actually a headwind for gold, even with a war on. That's the drag capping gold here. Offsetting it, yesterday's soft inflation print pulls real rates the other way and supports the metal. Net: a genuine tug-of-war, gold pinned near $4,060 with a neutral momentum reading. I'm not reflexively bullish just because there's conflict — the shock type matters, and this one cuts both ways.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,849 (RSI M15 44, ATR $126); day 64,769–64,913, prior-day H/L 65,540 / 64,419. It poked above $65k on the inflation relief then drifted back to the mid-$64ks — a pause after the pop. Ether 1,922 (RSI M15 52, ATR $5); day 1,916–1,923, prior-day H/L 1,943.32 / 1,860.47. Ether was the star, up around 6–7% on the day on softer inflation, fresh spot-ETF inflows (~$58m) and news that a Japanese Bitcoin-ETF bill cleared a key committee. Momentum here is constructive but no longer cheap.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14647 — RSI 59 (mildly firm, not overbought), ATR ~5 pips. Day H/L 1.14654/1.14608, prior-day H/L 1.14825/1.1406. Coiled in a razor-thin range; the softer dollar leans it higher.
• GBPUSD 1.35363 — RSI 65, ATR ~7 pips. Firm but extended after a strong run; prior-day low way down at 1.33749 shows how far it's travelled.
• USDJPY 162.162 — RSI 50 (neutral), ATR ~7 pips. Holding the 162 handle. Every push toward the mid-162s keeps Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF — Tokyo's currency authority, which has intervened to prop up the yen at weak levels) on jawbone watch, and softer US yields argue for a lower drift.
• AUDUSD 0.70052 — RSI 51, ATR ~4 pips. Rangey around 0.70; China's soft Q2 GDP (4.3%, missing target) is a background drag on the Aussie.
• NZDUSD 0.58498 — RSI 55, ATR ~4 pips. Quietly firm with the softer dollar.
• USDCHF 0.80480 — RSI 37 (soft), ATR ~5 pips. The franc is bid — a classic safe-haven tell while the oil/geopolitics story simmers.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,572.40	+0.38%	Risk-on
US 10Y	4.59%	Easing	Mildly dovish at the margin
DXY	~100.9	−0.5	USD soft
Gold	4,060.52	−$43 from prior-day high	Neutral (supply-shock cap vs soft-CPI support)
Bitcoin	64,849	−$691 from prior-day high	Firm, cooling
Brent	~$85	+3rd session	Hormuz supply shock

Normal liquidity session; the risk is event-driven (US data tonight + any fresh Hormuz headline).

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