Overnight, while the US slept

Stocks grind higher as cool inflation offsets war jitters: US equities closed firmer overnight — the S&P 500 +0.38% to 7,543.59 and the Nasdaq Composite +0.9% to 26,107, led by semiconductors, while the Dow was flat (+0.02% to 52,508) as IBM slumped ~25% on a profit warning. The lift came from June inflation: consumer prices fell 0.4% on the month — the biggest monthly drop in over six years — pulling the annual rate down to 3.5% and easing fears of further Fed rate rises.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield (the government's borrowing cost, and a key gauge of rate expectations) had pushed up to 4.59% on Monday — a near two-month high — before the soft inflation data nudged yields back down. The US Dollar Index (DXY — the dollar measured against a basket of major currencies) sits around 100.9, easing from early-July highs near 101.4. Even so, markets still price roughly a 51% chance of a Fed hike in September, so this is a currency where cuts are not the base case.

The dominant driver — a supply-side oil shock: The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran and reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, with Iran reportedly striking two UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped to a one-month high — settling around $84.73 and trading as high as $87 — up more than 10% since Sunday. This matters for how gold behaves: this is a supply-side shock (a war disrupting the flow of oil), which tends to push inflation and central-bank hawkishness up, lifting the US dollar and real yields — historically a headwind for gold, not a tailwind. That's exactly why gold sagged to its lowest since late June even as the conflict escalated. The offsetting force is the soft inflation print pulling yields down. Net: gold is caught in the middle and choppy.

Gold: trading 4,052.8 / 4,053.0. Day range has been enormous — roughly 3,983 to 4,103, with prior-day high/low at 4,103.5 / 3,986.6. RSI (a momentum gauge from 0–100; above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold") sits mid-band near 47 — no clear trend, just a wide, news-driven swing. I want to buy weakness into support rather than chase.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,650 (RSI ~66, 15-min ATR — average bar range — about $110); day range 64,514–64,651, prior-day H/L 64,888 / 61,775. It has clawed back some ground but remains capped below yesterday's high. Ether 1,877 (RSI ~64, ATR ~$4 on the 15-min); day 1,873–1,878, prior-day H/L 1,884.9 / 1,748.9. The mood is risk-off: the crypto Fear & Greed gauge has slid to 22 — "extreme fear" — as the Iran conflict saps appetite for speculative assets.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.1423 — RSI ~48 (neutral), ATR ~3.6 pips. Day H/L 1.1423 / 1.1418, prior-day 1.1462 / 1.1378. Compressed and quiet after a soft dollar session.
• GBPUSD 1.3390 — RSI ~52, ATR ~6 pips. Holding the middle of its prior-day 1.3442 / 1.3342 range.
• USDJPY 162.20 — RSI ~53, ATR ~4.6 pips. Prior-day 162.48 / 161.61. Elevated near 162; I'm keeping half an eye on Japanese intervention risk (the Ministry of Finance has stepped in before when the yen weakens too fast), though momentum is neutral.
• AUDUSD 0.6970 — RSI ~46, ATR ~3.2 pips. Prior-day 0.6993 / 0.6913. Soft, hugging the low end of range.
• NZDUSD 0.5809 — RSI ~47, ATR ~3.6 pips. Prior-day 0.5844 / 0.5742.
• USDCHF 0.8090 — RSI ~45, ATR ~3.7 pips. The franc is firm as a safe haven; prior-day 0.8152 / 0.8061.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,543.59	+0.38%	Mild risk-on
US 10Y	4.59%	Easing post-CPI	Dovish at the margin
DXY	100.9	−0.5 from early-July high	USD softer
Gold	4,052.9	~−50 from prior-day high	Choppy — supply-shock capped
Bitcoin	64,650	Below prior-day high 64,888	Weak / risk-off
Brent	~$84.7	+1.7% (up >10% since Sun)	Iran blockade / Hormuz risk

Context: geopolitics is the wildcard, but the cooler inflation print is the genuine surprise. Expect two-way, headline-driven moves rather than a clean trend.

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