Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-off, dollar bid: US shares fell as Middle East tensions flared. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% to ~7,546, the Nasdaq shed ~0.9% to ~26,039, and the Dow held up better (−0.2% to ~52,528) as energy names cushioned the losses while chipmakers stayed under pressure. Oil jumped roughly 5% on renewed US–Iran hostilities over the weekend.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield (the interest the US government pays to borrow for 10 years — the market's main gauge of rate expectations) sits firm around 4.57%. The US dollar index (DXY — a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies) is little changed near 100.9, holding a safe-haven bid. Markets have the next Fed rate decision (28–29 July) firmly in view.

The dominant driver — a supply-side oil shock, not a safe-haven grab: This is the crucial distinction for gold. When a conflict spikes the oil price (a supply-side shock — the disruption is to the supply of a commodity), it feeds inflation, pushes central banks to stay hawkish (lean towards higher rates), lifts real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and the dollar — and that combination is bearish for gold, even with a war on. That's the opposite of a pure demand-side safe-haven flight (a financial-stability scare), which lifts gold. My read is this is squarely the former, and it's why bullion is falling into the conflict rather than rallying on it.

Gold: trading 4001.02 / 4001.35 — a second straight down day, off roughly 2%+ from Friday. Day range 3986.56–4103.52; prior-day high/low 4134.79 / 4072.72. Price has broken clean below yesterday's floor and is now hovering just above the day's low. Momentum is soft but not yet washed out (RSI 39.69 — see below). I lean bearish while the oil-inflation story dominates, but note the two-way risk from tonight's data.

Crypto: Bitcoin ~$61,967 (RSI M15 37.55 — RSI, the Relative Strength Index, measures momentum on a 0–100 scale; ATR M15 ~$147 — ATR, Average True Range, is a plain gauge of how much price typically moves). Day range 61,879–62,124; prior-day H/L 64,383 / 61,693. It slipped under $63k in an Asian-session leverage flush and remains heavy near the lows. Ether ~$1,757 (RSI M15 37.82; ATR M15 ~$5.6); day 1,754.62–1,763.02, prior-day H/L 1,840.62 / 1,746.82 — down hard from Monday's ~$1,840 open. One genuine crosscurrent: spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs just snapped eight-week outflow streaks, a sign of real underlying demand, and Japan's PM has pledged friendlier Web3 policy — so the selling has a bid underneath it.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.13848 — RSI 38.29 (soft), ATR ~3 pips. Grinding at the day's lows just above the prior-day floor 1.13775; the euro is a passenger to dollar strength here.
• GBPUSD 1.33497 — RSI 36.62 (soft), ATR ~5 pips. Also pinned near prior-day low 1.33424.
• USDJPY 162.479 — RSI 61.67 (firm, not yet stretched), ATR ~4 pips. Right on the prior-day high 162.484 — the yield story keeps this bid, but at 162+ I'm watching for MOF intervention (Japan's Ministry of Finance stepping in to prop up a weak yen).
• AUDUSD 0.69169 — RSI 34.99 (soft), ATR ~3 pips. Heavy near prior-day low 0.69134; China trade data today is the local swing factor.
• NZDUSD 0.57486 — RSI 30.2 (near oversold), ATR ~3 pips. The weakest major on the screen, sagging toward prior-day low 0.57439.
• USDCHF 0.81447 — RSI 62.9 (firm), ATR ~3 pips. Dollar bid extends here too.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~7,546	−0.4%	Risk-off
US 10Y	4.57%	Firm	Hawkish-lean
DXY	~100.9	~flat	USD bid (safe-haven)
Gold	~$4,001	−$72 vs prior-day low	Bearish (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	~$61,967	−$1.8k on the day	Weak
Brent	~+5%	Up	US–Iran supply premium

High-impact data day: tonight's US CPI is a genuine binary — expect thinner, jumpier conditions into 22:30 AEST.

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