Overnight, while the US slept

US stocks closed Friday on a quietly firm note: the S&P 500 finished +0.42% at 7,575, the Nasdaq +0.29% at 26,282 and the Dow +0.29% at 52,637 — a choppy week that still ended green, helped by a splashy US listing from chipmaker SK Hynix and a market willing to look through the Middle East for now. Risk appetite is cautiously constructive, but this is a market keeping one eye on the Gulf.

Rates & DXY: the US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate that anchors global money) closed Friday at 4.56%, up about 9 basis points on the week and its highest since late May — bond yields are grinding higher, which is a hawkish, dollar-supportive backdrop. The DXY (the US dollar index, measuring the greenback against a basket of major peers) slipped toward 100.5 into Friday's close on a softer jobs report, but it's firming again at this morning's open as the oil shock and safe-haven demand pull money back into dollars.

The dominant driver — the Strait of Hormuz is shut, again: President Trump declared the three-month Iran ceasefire "over" on 8 July after accusing Iran of attacking commercial shipping, and the US followed with fresh airstrikes. Crude tanker traffic through the Strait has essentially stopped, Brent crude spiked above $80 before settling near $78, and US oil pushed to $76 intraday. This is the important nuance for gold: it's a supply-side shock (higher oil from a physical supply threat) rather than a demand-side flight to safety (a financial-system panic). Supply-side oil spikes keep inflation hot, keep central banks hawkish, and push real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) higher — and higher real rates plus a bid dollar are a headwind for gold. That's exactly why gold has drifted from its early-July highs near $4,200 down to today's levels even as the conflict escalated. I'm not in the reflexive "war = buy gold" camp here.

Gold: trading 4119.43 / 4119.63. Day range 4072.72–4134.79; prior-day high/low 4138.02 / 4054.21. Gold is stuck in the middle of Friday's range, capped under 4138 and leaking against rising yields — constructive but not breaking out. My bias is to sell strength rather than chase it while real rates climb.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,030 (RSI M15 44.1, ATR $83.86); day range 64,013–64,197, prior-day H/L 64,396 / 63,566. BTC is heavy — June was the worst month on record for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the Middle East risk-off has capped every bounce. Ether 1,811.77 (RSI M15 43.28, ATR $3.63); day range 1,811.12–1,820.02, prior-day H/L 1,827.22 / 1,776.47. ETH is pinned near the low of its range and below prior-day resistance. Both look like sell-the-rally charts to me.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14041 — RSI 28.72 (oversold — stretched to the downside), ATR ~3.6 pips. Day H/L 1.14009/1.14071, prior-day H/L 1.14608/1.14116. Euro has been dumped through Friday's low; oversold enough that I won't chase it lower.
• GBPUSD 1.33894 — RSI 34.84, ATR ~4.5 pips. Trading under the prior-day low — sterling soft alongside the euro.
• USDJPY 161.723 — RSI 55.21 (neutral, upper half), ATR ~4.3 pips. Yen remains deeply out of favour with US yields rising; but at 161–162 we're in MOF intervention territory (the Japanese finance ministry has stepped in to prop up the yen at these levels before) — a live tail risk for anyone long dollar-yen.
• AUDUSD 0.69461 — RSI 35.05, ATR ~2.0 pips. Aussie soft; commodity currencies aren't getting an oil bid.
• NZDUSD 0.57606 — RSI 38.48, ATR ~2.4 pips. Kiwi heavy in the risk-off.
• USDCHF 0.80789 — RSI 48.03, ATR ~3.2 pips. Franc broadly steady — the classic safe haven is quietly bid.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,575	+0.42%	Risk-on (cautious)
US 10Y	4.56%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~100.5	Firming at open	USD bid
Gold	4,119	−$19 vs prior-day high	Bearish-lean (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	64,030	−$366 vs prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$78	Spiked >$80 intraday	Hormuz supply risk

Monday open after a weekend of Gulf escalation — expect gappy, headline-driven trade until London arrives. Thin early liquidity means wider spreads at the open.

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