Overnight, while the US slept

Risk tone — mixed and nervy: Wall Street couldn't agree on a direction. The Dow fell 1.1% to 52,348, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,482, but the Nasdaq eked out +0.2% to 25,871 as the AI names clawed back ground. The tension all session was the same one we wake up to: a second straight day of US–Iran airstrikes, the ceasefire now openly declared "over," and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz grinding to a near-halt.

Rates & DXY: The long end of the US bond market keeps pushing higher — the 30-year yield is holding above 5% (~5.08%), and the whole curve firmed as traders lifted their bets on the Fed staying hawkish (leaning toward higher-for-longer rates) on the back of the oil spike. The US dollar index (DXY — the dollar measured against a basket of major currencies) sat little changed but firm at ~100.96, keeping a safe-haven bid.

The dominant driver — an oil shock, not just a war: Crude jumped about 4.4% (WTI ~$73.5), its best day since May, after President Trump warned of a possible blockade and even floated strikes on Iran's Kharg Island export terminal. This is the distinction that matters for gold. When conflict spikes oil, it becomes a supply-side inflation shock (higher input costs, not stronger demand) — central banks turn hawkish, real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) push up, and the dollar catches a safe-haven-plus-yield bid. That combination is a headwind for gold, which is exactly why bullion is stuck rather than soaring. I never assume "no ceasefire = buy gold" — you have to diagnose the type of shock first, and this one caps gold more than it fuels it.

Gold: trading 4123.67/4123.87. Day range 4054.21–4138.02; prior-day H/L 4133.94 / 4021.84. A war escalating and gold can't clear its prior-day high — that inertia tells you the real-rates/dollar headwind is doing its job. Momentum is dead-neutral here (RSI ~51 — the momentum gauge sitting mid-range, neither overbought nor oversold). I'm treating rallies into 4133–4138 as fade territory.

Crypto: Bitcoin 63,220 (RSI M15 ~58, ATR $128); day 63,170–63,345, prior-day H/L 63,439 / 61,611. It sold off hard on the strikes then ripped back once headlines hinted Iran might return to talks — classic headline whipsaw, and it's bounced well off yesterday's 61,611 low. Ether 1,745 (RSI M15 ~49, ATR $4); day 1,742.87–1,748.67, prior-day H/L 1,758.57 / 1,717.12. Ether stabilised rather than rallied — the weaker of the two, still pinned under 1,758.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14304 — RSI ~46 (neutral, mild soft lean), ATR ~2.4 pips. Day H/L 1.14324 / 1.14300, prior-day H/L 1.14493 / 1.14148. Grinding lower under a firm dollar; the 1.1415 area is the line in the sand.
• GBPUSD 1.34066 — RSI ~48, ATR ~5 pips. Chopping in the middle of its range with no clean level — a pass for me today.
• USDJPY 162.403 — RSI ~57 (firm), ATR ~3.3 pips. Day H/L 162.400 / 162.347, prior-day H/L 162.612 / 162.247. The yen is back near a 40-year low; pricier oil hurts an energy-importer like Japan, so the pair leans up — but be alert to MOF intervention (Japan's finance ministry stepping in to buy yen) up here.
• AUDUSD 0.69409 — RSI ~50, ATR ~2.6 pips. Rangebound and, frankly, a graveyard for me lately — I'm leaving it alone.
• NZDUSD 0.57564 — RSI ~51, ATR ~3.1 pips. Quietly holding; no edge worth pressing.
• USDCHF 0.80666 — RSI ~46, ATR ~3.3 pips. Franc firm on the safe-haven bid, capping the pair.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,482	−0.3%	Risk-off, nervy
US 30Y	5.08%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	100.96	~flat, firm	USD bid
Gold	4,123.77	−$10 from prior high	Capped (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	63,220	+$1.6k off prior low	Weak but bouncing
Crude (WTI)	~$73.5	+4.4%	Hormuz supply fear

Normal liquidity, but a headline-driven session — any fresh Hormuz or blockade development will move everything at once.

---