Overnight, while the US slept

Risk came off as the Middle East flared up again: US equities finished mixed-to-soft — the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% and the Dow shed roughly 1.1% (to ~52,339) as higher oil soured the macro mood, while the Nasdaq eked out +0.3% on a chip rebound (Broadcom +4.8% on an expanded Apple deal, Nvidia +3.6% on China H200 demand). Financials led the downside (JPMorgan −2.5%, Visa −1.3%).

Rates & DXY: Yields pushed higher — the US 2-year sits near 4.21% and the 10-year around 4.48% — as traders priced more Fed caution. Markets now see roughly a 66% chance of a rate hike by September (up from ~62%), and yesterday's June Fed minutes leaned hawkish: officials still flag upside risks to inflation from tariffs, AI-driven investment and — pointedly — Middle East tensions, and staff nudged up their 2026–27 inflation projections. The DXY (the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies) held just above 101, near a one-week high.

The dominant driver — oil and Iran: Washington launched fresh strikes and revoked the waiver that let Iran sell crude, after Iran reportedly fired on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped to around $75.68 and WTI to ~$71.90, extending a sharp multi-day climb. This is a classic supply-side shock (a jump in input costs — here, oil — rather than a surge in demand): it makes inflation stickier, pushes central banks to stay hawkish, lifts real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and hands the dollar a yield-plus-safety bid. That combination is bearish for gold even with a war on — the yield and dollar pull outweighs the safe-haven pull. This is why gold is down, not up, and it's the frame I'm trading off today.

Gold: trading 4077.49 / 4077.69. Day range 4021.84–4133.94; prior-day high/low 4180.51 / 4092.32. Gold fell more than 1% yesterday to a low near 4050 — its weakest since 2 July — and now trades below the prior-day low, which flips that 4092 shelf into resistance. As long as oil stays bid and the Fed-hike story builds, I think rallies are for selling.

Crypto: Bitcoin 62,075 (RSI M15 49.8, ATR $162); day 61,903–62,108, prior-day H/L 63,829 / 61,446. BTC is heavy, down over 2% on the day and probing the $62k area with a $60k test in view. Ether 1,733.93 (RSI M15 48.9, ATR $5.40); day 1,728.77–1,734.82, prior-day H/L 1,787.17 / 1,709.92. ETH slid from ~1,787 toward 1,710 and is consolidating just above that floor. With more than $400m of leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours, a stablecoin-supply contraction and thin ETF inflows, the whole complex is on a structurally weak footing — risk-off oil headlines are the last thing it needed.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14206 — RSI 52.5 (neutral), ATR 3.8 pips. Day H/L 1.14210 / 1.14148 (a tight, quiet range), prior-day H/L 1.14317 / 1.13912. Capped under 1.1432 while the dollar stays firm.
• GBPUSD 1.33937 — RSI 54.6, ATR 6.3 pips. Day H/L 1.33983 / 1.33843. Holding up better than the euro but still leaning on the dollar's mood.
• USDJPY 162.567 — RSI 54.0, ATR 5.9 pips. Pinned above 162 on the wide Fed-vs-BoJ yield gap. This is intervention territory — watch for Japan's MOF (Ministry of Finance, Japan's currency-intervention authority) to lean against further yen weakness.
• AUDUSD 0.69288 — RSI 47.2, ATR 3.7 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.69468 / 0.69066. Soft; strong dollar and risk-off weigh, with China inflation data due in our morning.
• NZDUSD 0.57025 — RSI 51.0, ATR 4.5 pips. Middling; taking its cue from the AUD and the broad dollar.
• USDCHF 0.80840 — RSI 49.8, ATR 3.1 pips. The franc's own safe-haven bid is capping this pair even as the dollar firms elsewhere — a tell that haven demand is real.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	−0.3%	mild risk-off	Risk-off (ex-chips)
US 10Y	4.48%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~101.1	+0.05, 1-week high	USD bid
Gold	4,077.59	−$103 from prior-day high; below prior-day low	Bearish (supply-side oil shock)
Bitcoin	62,075	−$1,754 from prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$75.68	+2%	Iran supply premium

Normal liquidity session — but the tape is headline-driven, so expect air-pockets around any Iran or oil news.

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