Overnight, while the US slept

US equities. Wall Street leaked lower as the rotation out of artificial-intelligence and chip names rolled on for another session. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.45% to 7,503.85, the Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the tech selling and fell 1.16% to 25,818.69, while the Dow held up best, easing just 0.25% to 52,925.15 as it pulled back gently from record territory. Rising oil gave energy names a bid but couldn't offset the drag from megacap tech.

Rates & the dollar. Treasuries were quiet ahead of the Fed minutes: the 2-year yield sat near 4.11% and the 10-year around 4.47% (the 10Y is the market's benchmark borrowing-cost gauge), with the 30-year just under 4.99%. The bigger story is the tone of the Fed — at its June meeting policymakers marked their 2026 inflation forecast sharply higher and dropped earlier hints of rate cuts, tilting toward the risk of another hike rather than a cut. That hawkish lean (central-bank-speak for leaning toward higher, not lower, rates) is exactly what keeps real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) firm and the dollar bid. The dollar index (DXY — a gauge of the USD against a basket of major currencies) pushed to multi-week highs.

Gold. Gold sold off, changing hands around $4,106/oz — roughly $22 below yesterday's floor and nearly $100 off the prior day's high, with momentum now oversold (RSI near 31; RSI is a 0–100 gauge where sub-30 flags "oversold"/stretched-to-the-downside). Here's the piece that trips a lot of people up: there is a geopolitical flare-up — a laden LNG tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz and oil jumped — yet gold fell. That's the framework doing its job. This is a supply-side inflation shock (a conflict that threatens the supply of a commodity like oil, pushing prices up), not a demand-side flight to safety. A supply-side oil spike makes central banks more hawkish, pushes real rates and the dollar up, and that combination outweighs the safe-haven bid — so gold trades heavy despite the headlines. I'd resist the reflex to buy gold just because there's a conflict on the wires.

Crypto. Risk-off tech selling spilled into digital assets. Bitcoin drifted to around $63,400 (about $1,200 below the prior day's high, though still holding above its recent floor), and Ether was the weaker of the two, slipping toward $1,775 after failing to hold higher ground. Sentiment is grim — the Fear & Greed gauge is parked deep in "extreme fear." Softer US jobs data has quietly trimmed rate-hike bets and given crypto the odd bounce, but the tape is being led lower by the same AI-stock cool-off hitting equities.

FX. It was a clean dollar-strength session. The euro was heavy near 1.1407 and looks oversold, the pound softened to about 1.3358, and the risk-sensitive Aussie and Kiwi both gave ground (AUD ~0.6924, NZD ~0.5678). Dollar-yen was the standout the other way, grinding up to ~162.16 and pressing the top of its range on the yield-gap story — though that also puts it back in the zone where Japanese officials start to grumble.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,503.85	−0.45%	Risk-off
US 10Y	4.47%	Steady	Hawkish hold
DXY	Firmer (multi-wk high)	Higher	USD bid
Gold	$4,106	−$22 vs pdL / −$97 vs pdH	Bearish (supply-side shock)
Bitcoin	$63,436	−$1.2k vs pdH	Weak
Brent	~$73	+~2–3%	Hormuz shipping attack