Overnight, while the US slept

Wall Street starts the week at record highs. Coming back from the long Independence Day weekend, US equities pushed higher: the S&P 500 rose about 0.72% to 7,537, the Nasdaq added 1.12% to 26,121, and the Dow ground out a record close at 53,056 (+0.29%). The mood is firmly risk-on — soft jobs data is being read as "the Fed can stay patient," which is exactly the backdrop equities like.

Rates & DXY: The 10-year Treasury yield (the government's borrowing cost that anchors global rates) sits around 4.49%, with the 2-year near 4.14% — little changed and still pricing the Fed on hold. The DXY (the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies) is roughly flat at 100.85. The dollar is firm but not surging; the soft labour data has capped it.

The single biggest driver — the June jobs miss: US non-farm payrolls grew just 57,000 in June against forecasts near 110,000, and the unemployment rate ticked to 4.2%. That's the smallest gain in four months. Crucially, this is a hiking-risk Fed — rates sit at 3.50–3.75% and until recently the market fretted about another hike as inflation ran above target on the back of an earlier energy spike. A weak jobs print pulls that hike risk lower (odds of a September move roughly halved), which is why gold, stocks and bonds all took it well.

Gold: trading 4164.96/4165.33. Day range 4128.52–4202.95; prior-day high/low 4195.45 / 4121.33. Here the framework matters: this is a demand/rate-driven bid, not a war-premium one. Oil is falling (more on that below), so there's no supply-side inflation shock forcing the Fed's hand — the opposite, in fact. Softer oil plus a softer Fed path means real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) drift lower, and lower real rates are gold's best friend. My read: mildly bullish, and I'd rather buy dips than chase the highs.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,144 (15-min RSI 66.7, ATR — average 15-min candle range — about $211); day 63,764–64,636, prior-day high/low 63,939 / 61,240. It wobbled to the low-$61Ks in US hours before recovering — US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day outflow streak with $221.7m of inflows, their best day in two months, which helped steady things. Ether 1,806.62 (15-min RSI 63.9, ATR ~$8.9); day 1,784.32–1,830.32, prior-day high/low 1,805.27 / 1,726.47. Ether has pushed back above last session's high — a cleaner, more constructive chart than Bitcoin's right now.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.1442 — RSI (the momentum gauge; above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold") 65, getting warm, ATR ~23 pips. Sitting right on the day/prior-day highs. Soft US jobs plus June's ECB hike keep the euro underpinned, but it's stretched into resistance.
• GBPUSD 1.3388 — RSI 62, ATR ~48 pips. Torn: a weak UK services survey (48.8, back in contraction) drags on sterling, while a softer dollar props it up. No clean edge.
• USDJPY 162.08 — RSI 38 (leaning lower), ATR ~5 pips. The yen is at multi-decade lows and Tokyo is rattling the intervention sabre — Japan's finance minister repeated on 3 July that officials are ready to act (MOF intervention = the Ministry of Finance stepping in to buy yen). Softer Fed expectations plus that verbal guard tilt the risk lower for this pair.
• AUDUSD 0.6956 — RSI 62, ATR ~25 pips. Holding up despite soft local inflation and job-ads reads; the RBA stays on hold at 4.35% (next call 11 Aug).
• NZDUSD 0.5699 — RSI 51, ATR ~22 pips. Middling; has slipped from the prior-day high.
• USDCHF 0.8050 — RSI 36, ATR ~33 pips. Franc firm as the dollar softens.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,537	+0.72%	Risk-on
US 10Y	4.49%	Steady	Neutral
DXY	100.85	~flat	USD firm
Gold	4,165	−$30 from day high 4,203	Bullish (rate-driven)
Bitcoin	64,144	+$205 vs prior-day high	Recovering
Brent	~$71.7	−0.5%	OPEC+ supply, cooler Mideast

Context: it's a light, post-holiday week for data — thinner liquidity early, with the real event risk parked on Wednesday (US time).

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