Overnight, while the US slept

US stocks closed the week strong: the S&P 500 added 0.51% to 7,743.41, the Dow jumped 0.93% to 51,828.62 (snapping a three-week losing run) and the Nasdaq rose 0.48% to 27,068.72 on Friday. The VIX (Wall Street's "fear gauge") eased to 14.87. Risk appetite was firm into the weekend.

Rates & DXY: the US 10-year Treasury yield sits at an elevated 5.18%, reflecting the market's hawkish read on the Fed since its September 16 decision to lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The dollar index (DXY, a basket measure of the greenback against major peers) is trading around 100.9 — up roughly 1% on the week even after a small Friday pullback — as traders lean into the idea that US rates stay higher for longer.

Yemen escalation is the story that moved over the weekend: Saudi Arabia launched a major air campaign against Houthi forces, with more than 150 people reportedly killed across two days of fighting, and military chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have called urgent talks. Iran, separately, claims it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway that around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through) within seven days, while also threatening to disrupt regional air traffic. It's a genuinely fluid, two-sided picture: Friday's rally was partly built on hopes that Washington-Tehran diplomacy could ease the Hormuz risk, but the weekend's Yemen news cuts the other way. I'd treat any "de-escalation" headline as fragile until it's tested.

Gold: trading around $4,267/oz, down from Friday's ~$4,321 close. Day range so far is tight ($4,265–$4,275) since the session only just reset; the prior session's range was $4,254.47–$4,315.82. Here's the tension worth understanding: the Fed just hiked, which should mean higher real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and a bearish gold backdrop — normally that's how a supply-side shock (an oil spike from a Mideast war) plays out, since it pushes central banks to tighten, real rates rise, and the dollar's yield advantage draws money away from non-yielding gold. But gold's still trading within cooee of record highs because the raw safe-haven bid from an unresolved, escalating war is powerful enough to override that. My read: that safe-haven premium is doing a lot of the work right now, and it's exactly the kind of thing that can evaporate fast on a single diplomatic headline.

Crypto: Bitcoin trading near $84,370 (RSI M15 41.6 — neutral, not overbought/oversold; ATR ~$180) inside a tight range between the day's $84,235–$84,746 and the prior session's $83,977–$85,142. It's consolidating rather than trending — Bitcoin ETF flows reportedly turned positive for 2026 after clawing back a prior deficit, and altcoins have been outperforming. Ether is around $2,675–$2,680 (RSI M15 ~38–41; ATR ~$7.6), similarly rangebound between $2,669–$2,692 today and $2,677–$2,721 prior session. Nothing decisive here yet.

Key FX:

• EURUSD ~1.1383 — RSI 36.9 (leaning soft, not yet oversold), ATR ~4 pips. Day H/L 1.13745/1.13868, prior-day H/L 1.13684/1.14112. Euro's on the back foot as the dollar's rate advantage widens.
• GBPUSD ~1.3232 — RSI 39.1, ATR ~5.6 pips. Similar story to the euro — soft, no standout UK catalyst today.
• USDJPY ~157.47 — RSI 61.8 (getting toward overbought), ATR ~7.2 pips. Yen weakness persists on the rate differential; worth watching for jawboning from Japanese officials (MOF intervention risk — verbal or actual central-bank action to prop up the yen) if this keeps climbing.
• AUDUSD ~0.7014 — RSI 36, ATR ~5 pips. Sitting quietly ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank decision, which is shaping up as the week's biggest local story (more below).
• NZDUSD ~0.5656 — RSI 38.2, ATR ~3.4 pips. Tracking the Aussie dollar's mood without its own catalyst.
• USDCHF ~0.8294 — RSI 61.5, ATR ~4.3 pips. Firmer with the broader dollar move.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,743	+0.51% (Fri)	Risk-on
US 10Y	5.18%	Elevated, steady	Hawkish
DXY	~100.9	+~1% on the week	USD firm
Gold	~$4,267	−$54 from Friday's close	Safe-haven bid fading vs. real-rate drag
Bitcoin	~$84,370	Roughly flat	Consolidating
Brent	~$102.4	Elevated on Mideast risk	Supply-side

Today's session should be quiet by comparison — Taiwan's market is shut for a local holiday and mainland China is digesting industrial-profit data, so expect thinner liquidity in parts of Asia ahead of tomorrow's much bigger calendar.

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