Overnight, while the US slept

Tech held up, everything else stalled: The S&P 500 finished flat at 7,764.64, the Nasdaq added about 0.5% to a record near 27,244, and the Dow slipped 185 points (−0.36%) to 51,863.69. Meta's Muse AI agent kept the AI trade going. Small caps did better than the big indices, with the Russell 2000 up roughly 0.4% midday. Among single stocks, Viking Therapeutics jumped ~31% on weight-loss drug data, while Charles Schwab (−5.7%) led financials lower as the market digested last week's first Fed hike since 2023.

Rates & DXY: Treasuries barely moved. The 10-year sat near 4.96%, the 2-year near 4.74% and the 30-year near 5.30% (all approximate, intraday). That puts 2s10s (the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields) around +22bp and roughly unchanged. The shape is the real story: oil fell again, yet short-dated yields didn't follow it down. Hawkish comments from Goolsbee and Musalem are holding the front end up, and as long as that's true the dollar has support. The DXY (the dollar measured against six major currencies) touched 100.67, its highest since 30 July, then eased back to about 100.4 on the Iran headline. The Fed funds target is now 3.75–4.00%, and 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year.

Iran offers a path on Hormuz; oil keeps bleeding: A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases military pressure. Iran's delegation is at the UN General Assembly in New York with authority to negotiate. There's no confirmed Trump–Pezeshkian meeting, and both sides were still trading threats over the weekend. Brent sits just under $100 at about $99.9, down roughly 2% on the day, and WTI fell for a fifth straight session to around $89.5.

Gold: trading 4,358.39/4,358.59. Tuesday's range was 4,291.55–4,376.07, and Monday's high/low was 4,383.38/4,322.72. My framework: the oil spike was a supply-side shock (an inflation hit from disrupted supply), and the Fed has responded with a hike. That lifts real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation), and rising real rates are bad for a metal that pays no yield. That channel is still open. Tuesday's bounce from 4,291 came from a softer dollar on the Iran headline, not from any change in the Fed. Gold tested its 50-day and 100-day moving averages (4,301/4,316) and held them, so I respect the support, but I'd sell into Monday's highs rather than chase the bounce.

Crypto: Bitcoin 86,245/86,268 (RSI M15 48.3, ATR $193). Its range so far this session is 86,177.55–86,335.85, and the prior-day high/low was 86,836.15/85,050.35. It's consolidating just under the eight-month high after Monday's squeeze, helped by ETF inflows of close to $1bn on Monday and Strategy adding 950 BTC. Ether 2,748.14/2,751.76 (RSI M15 50.0, ATR $7.72). Its range this session is 2,745.14–2,750.64, and the prior-day high/low was 2,786.06/2,713.04. It gave back part of Monday's jump toward 2,805 but held above 2,700, which is a healthy pullback so far.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14466 — RSI 50.9 (neutral), ATR 3.1 pips. Day H/L 1.14497/1.14462, prior-day H/L 1.14783/1.14293. The euro sits near its weakest since late July. ING's short-term fair value has dropped below 1.150, and they see risk of a retest of June's 1.1320–1.1330 lows.
• GBPUSD 1.33424 — RSI 50.3, ATR 4.3 pips. Prior-day H/L 1.33873/1.33215. Markets price ~75% odds of a BoE hike in November, which looks rich to me given how cautious the BoE sounded last week.
• USDJPY 157.43 — RSI 51.7 (neutral), ATR 6.1 pips. Prior-day H/L 157.776/156.825. Tokyo is shut today for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, so liquidity is thin. MOF intervention (Japan's Finance Ministry selling dollars to prop up the yen) is still a live risk into 158.
• AUDUSD 0.71119 — RSI 49.2, ATR 2.9 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.71260/0.70925. Hawkish RBA comments kept it bid above 0.7100, and all four major banks now expect a hike to 4.60% on 29 September.
• NZDUSD 0.57290 — RSI 54.5, ATR 2.4 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.57489/0.56943. It bounced off Tuesday's low but stalled right under the 0.5750 shelf again.
• USDCHF 0.82065 — RSI 46.8, ATR 3.6 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.82249/0.81835. Choppy, and not following the broader dollar move.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,764.64	flat (−0.00%)	Neutral — tech bid, financials weak
US 10Y	~4.96%	Steady (<1bp)	Hawkish hold — front end not following oil lower
DXY	~100.4	Off 100.67 high; ~+0.2% at peak	USD firm, dipped on Iran headline
Gold	4,358.49	−$24.89 from pdH 4,383.38 / +$35.77 above pdL 4,322.72	Bearish bias — supply shock + Fed channel open
Bitcoin	86,256.70	−$579.45 from pdH 86,836.15 / +$1,206.35 above pdL 85,050.35	Strong, consolidating
Brent	~$99.9	≈ −2%	Hormuz diplomacy draining risk premium

Normal session, but thin in Asia with Japan on holiday. Most of the day's action will come from headlines (UN General Assembly, Xi's arrival in Washington) rather than data until the flash PMIs tonight.

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