Overnight, while the US slept

The Fed hiked, and the dot plot did the damage: the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to lift the funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since 2023, with a terse statement saying inflation "remains elevated". The projections were the real story — 16 of 18 officials see another hike possible this year, and the median 2026 end-point moved up to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Equities faded through Chair Warsh's press conference: the Dow fell 631.21 points (−1.21%) to 51,461.90, the S&P 500 lost 0.45% to 7,551.81, and the Nasdaq Composite finished effectively flat, −0.01% at 25,978.42. Banks took the worst of it — the SPDR S&P Bank ETF shed about 2.6%, its ugliest session since late February, on the view that more tightening squeezes lending.

Rates & DXY: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.006%, back above 5% for the first time since 2023, while the 2-year rose about 5 basis points to 4.717%. Note the shape, not just the level: the long end rose more than the front end, so the 2s10s curve (the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, roughly +29bp) steepened. That is the bond market saying it believes the Fed on inflation but doubts it can hold the line cheaply — a term-premium problem, not a growth story. The dollar index (DXY — the greenback against a basket of major currencies) firmed 0.31% to 99.696 and has extended its gains into the Asian morning; every major currency I follow is weaker against the dollar than it was twelve hours ago.

Oil is still the engine: Brent sits around $108.34 a barrel, up roughly $1.77 on the day and about $40 higher than this time last year. Loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port remain suspended with the East–West pipeline — the workaround that avoids the Strait of Hormuz — still shut, Houthi attacks on Saudi targets resumed this week, and Saudi output has reportedly fallen to its weakest since 1990. This is a supply-side shock (prices rising because supply is blocked, not because demand is booming).

Gold: trading 4264.06/4264.26. Session range 4235.07–4366.22; prior-session high/low 4317.42 / 4261.38. This is the framework working exactly as written. A supply-side inflation shock is only bearish for gold if the central bank actually reacts to it — if policymakers hold through the shock, real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) fall and gold flies. Last night the policy channel was wide open: the Fed hiked, signalled more, real rates rose, the dollar bid, and gold dropped from 4366.22 to 4257.10 inside the decision hour before printing 4235.07 and bouncing. Momentum is now oversold (RSI 33.2 — a gauge of how stretched a move is, below 30 is oversold), which tells me to sell strength rather than chase the hole. I was bearish gold yesterday and stay bearish today.

Crypto: Bitcoin 75,999 (RSI 54, ATR $423); this morning's range 75,955.61–76,151.81, prior-session high/low 76,478.41 / 74,927.01. This is the one genuinely interesting divergence overnight — bitcoin was flushed to 74,927 on the decision and then bought all the way back to 76,350, closing the hole entirely. Whatever else it says, that is not a market being force-liquidated. Ether 2,402.85 (RSI 51, ATR $17.5); range 2,400.48–2,409.38, prior-session high/low 2,426.08 / 2,363.88. Ether recovered too, but weakly — it is still trading below where it sat before the decision, and it remains the laggard.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14623 — RSI 20.2 (deeply oversold), ATR 9.6 pips. Range so far 1.14658 / 1.14553, prior-session high/low 1.15566 / 1.14610. The euro fell 77 pips in the decision hour alone and has not bounced; Europe imports its energy while the US does not, so $108 Brent is a direct hit to the eurozone's terms of trade.
• GBPUSD 1.33812 — RSI 30.3, ATR 11.7 pips. Prior-session high/low 1.34980 / 1.33725. Cable lost over a big figure and sits on the lows into tonight's Bank of England vote.
• USDJPY 156.223 — RSI 70.8 (overbought), ATR 15.9 pips. Prior-session high/low 156.416 / 154.838. The yen was the biggest casualty, dumping ~160 pips to a fresh high. With the Bank of Japan meeting Friday and 157 the zone where Japan's Ministry of Finance has historically started talking about intervention (the government instructing the central bank to buy yen), I'd be very careful chasing this.
• AUDUSD 0.70892 — RSI 32.3, ATR 8.6 pips. Prior-session high/low 0.71399 / 0.70750. Sold with everything else; no domestic catalyst until next week's jobs numbers.
• NZDUSD 0.57142 — RSI 30.3, ATR 8.4 pips. Prior-session high/low 0.57672 / 0.57035. The weakest of the majors on a percentage basis.
• USDCHF 0.82559 — RSI 71.0, ATR 10.6 pips. Prior-session high/low 0.82641 / 0.81758. The franc's safe-haven bid was overwhelmed by the yield story — an 80-pip dollar gain in a session.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,551.81	−0.45%	Risk-off
Dow / Nasdaq	51,461.90 / 25,978.42	−1.21% / −0.01%	Banks led lower
US 10Y	5.006%	Rising, back above 5%	Hawkish
US 2Y	4.717%	+5bp	Hawkish, curve steepening
DXY	99.70	+0.31%, extending in Asia	USD stronger
Gold	4,264.16	−$102 from session high 4,366.22	Bearish — policy channel open
Bitcoin	75,999	−$479 vs prior-session high, full recovery off 74,927	Resilient
Brent	~$108.34	+$1.77	Supply shock, pipeline still shut

Context: this is the morning after a live central-bank decision. Asia typically gets thin, exaggerated moves in the first two hours as the overnight repricing settles — I don't trade the first prints, I let them set the level.

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