Overnight, while the US slept

Weak jobs, dovish repricing: The June US payrolls report — released Thursday, the day before the holiday — landed at just +57,000 jobs versus ~110,000 expected, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Unemployment ticked to 4.2%, but only because the participation rate slumped to its lowest since 2021. The read: the labour market is cooling, and markets promptly scaled back bets on a near-term Fed rate hike (the odds of a September hike fell from roughly two-thirds to about even).

US equities: A split session. The Dow rose ~300 points to a fresh record, led by Apple, McDonald's and Disney, while the S&P 500 finished roughly flat and the Nasdaq 100 slipped ~0.8% as chipmakers fell for a second day on questions about whether AI enthusiasm has run valuations too far.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate) eased about 2 basis points to ~4.46% as hike bets came off; the bond market shut early ahead of the holiday. The US dollar index (DXY — the greenback measured against a basket of major peers) drifted lower toward the low-101s, with the euro, Aussie and Kiwi firming.

Gold: trading 4177.48 / 4177.53. Day range 4121.33–4195.45; prior-day high/low 4143.99 / 4030.79. Bullion has ripped back above 4100 from an eight-month low. Important to diagnose why: this is a demand-side, rate-driven rally — softer jobs, lower real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) and a weaker dollar — not a safe-haven panic. Oil is calm (Brent ~$71.7, with Strait of Hormuz shipping recovering as US–Iran talks progress), so there's no supply-side inflation shock forcing central banks hawkish. That distinction matters: on this framework, the backdrop is genuinely supportive for gold rather than the "conflict = buy gold" reflex.

Crypto: Bitcoin 61,405 (RSI M15 51, ATR ~$164); day 61,152–61,639, prior-day H/L 62,141 / 59,497. It rebounded off a sub-$60k low on the same dovish impulse and is now consolidating mid-range. Ether 1,703 (RSI M15 53, ATR ~$7.5); day 1,688.62–1,714.87, prior-day H/L 1,721.57 / 1,594.27 — a sharp recovery off 1,594 that has reclaimed the middle of its range.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.14450 — RSI 64.5 (elevated), ATR ~4 pips. Sitting on the day high; prior-day H/L 1.14727 / 1.13752. Holding the top of its range as the dollar softens.
• GBPUSD 1.33643 — RSI 63.8, ATR ~5 pips. Firm but mid-range; prior-day H/L 1.33849 / 1.32673.
• USDJPY 161.18 — RSI 48.5 (neutral), ATR ~8 pips. Yen firmer as US yields eased; down from a prior-day high of 162.60.
• AUDUSD 0.69402 — RSI 67.2 (stretched), ATR ~4 pips. Pinned to the day high 0.6941 and right under prior-day resistance 0.69435.
• NZDUSD 0.57130 — RSI 66.7 (stretched), ATR ~4 pips. Also at the day high, just below prior-day resistance 0.5717.
• USDCHF 0.80256 — RSI 36.8, ATR ~3 pips. Franc bid; dollar heavy across the board.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~Flat (Dow at record)	≈0%	Mixed
US 10Y	4.46%	Falling (−2bp)	Dovish
DXY	~101	Soft	USD down
Gold	4,177	+$34 vs prior-day high	Bullish (rate-driven)
Bitcoin	61,405	+~$1.4k vs Thu open	Firming
Brent	~$71.7	+0.2%	Calm (Hormuz easing)

Context: US cash equities and the bond market are closed today for Independence Day (observed). Expect thin, easily-pushed liquidity and gap risk into the long weekend.

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